What the War in Ukraine Means for the World’s Food Supply

As we watch Ukrainian refugees arrive by car and foot in Poland, it’s hard not to recall World War II, when the region was ravaged by fighting, famine spread and millions of Ukrainians died of starvation.

We’re nowhere near that point; this time, however, food disruptions won’t remain an insular crisis. What is happening in Ukraine now already is radiating outward and threatening food availability in less prosperous nations that have come to depend on exports of grains and other food products from Ukraine and Russia.

The Black Sea region today is a vital hub of global agricultural production and trade, and Ukraine is one of the world’s breadbaskets. After the breakup of the Soviet Union, Ukraine and Russia were net grain importers. Now the two countries account for 29 percent of global exports of wheat. They also contribute 19 percent of global corn and 80 percent of global sunflower oil exports.

After only days of fighting, global commodity markets have been roiled. Shipping in the Sea of Azov was brought to a standstill last week. Wheat futures jumped 12 percent on the Chicago Board of Trade. This increase topped already inflated prices.

Staple grains supply the bulk of the diet for the world’s poorest. Higher prices threaten to place a significant strain on poor countries like Bangladesh, Sudan and Pakistan, which in 2020 received roughly half or more of their wheat from Russia or Ukraine, as well as Egypt and Turkey, which imported the great majority of their wheat from those combatants. Nations in the Middle East and North Africa saw food prices spike in 2010 when Ukraine restricted its exports of wheat, squeezing what had been consistent supplies of food to those countries and contributing to political instability throughout the region.

Pandemic-related supply chain disruptions have already inflated prices for food and other basic staples. Many low-income food-importing countries have also seen an increase in malnourishment rates.

To make matters worse, Russia and Belarus, a staging ground for the invasion and close ally of Russia, are also major exporters of fertilizer, with Russia leading the world; prices, which were at historically high levels before the war, have spiked. Fertilizer scarcity jeopardizes global crop production at a time when some or all of the 13 percent of global corn and 12 percent of global wheat exports from Ukraine could be lost.

The United Nations’ World Food Program warned in November that the world is facing “catastrophic hunger” for hundreds of millions of people as the humanitarian organization struggles financially to provide help to troubled nations. This is especially true in Afghanistan, where famine looms for millions.

“Fuel costs are up, food prices are soaring, fertilizer is more expensive, and all of this feeds into new crises,” the program’s executive director, David Beasley, said at the time.

Now Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has significantly exacerbated those problems, threatening the security of countries already struggling to feed their populations.

The international community must take steps to forestall the accelerating food crisis rippling outward from Ukraine. Countries — including the United States, Canada, France and Australia — should avoid restricting grain exports and work to ensure that trade contributes to global food availability. Nations that rely on Ukraine and Russia for their grain should work with other grain producers to diversify their agricultural supply chains. Sanctions against Russia should be carefully evaluated to ensure that they do not exacerbate food shortages in vulnerable countries.

International efforts to reduce fertilizer prices, by holding down energy prices and maintaining open trade in fertilizers, would help farmers around the world grow crops. Food prices have been high not only because of the pandemic but also because palm and soybean oils have been redirected for biodiesel fuel in the European Union, for instance, and corn for ethanol in the United States. Diverting grain from those uses to food supplies could help to lower prices by replacing losses in supply from Ukraine and Russia. It is also clear that, given the World Food Program’s financial challenges, new strategies are needed for financing humanitarian assistance.

Food security is essential for a nation’s security. Throughout history, we have seen conflict disrupt food supplies and, even more troubling, turn food into a weapon of war. Prioritizing food security for countries that depend on Ukraine and Russia is vital. NATO and its allies must stabilize supplies and assure that humanitarian efforts protect Ukrainians.

Global integration and development since World War II have dramatically reduced famine around the world, but conflict remains a main driver of hunger and supply disruptions that can upend the security of nations. The international community should act now to keep food prices down and ensure that grain supplies reach vulnerable countries. We must take action to prevent hunger and famine from being used in the 21st century as a weapon of war in Ukraine and elsewhere.

Michael J. Puma is the director of the Center for Climate Systems Research at Columbia University’s Climate School, where he has done extensive research on global food security. Megan Konar is an associate professor of civil and environmental engineering at the University of Illinois, where she studies food supply chains and their links to water use and sustainability.

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